Multivariate prediction of long COVID headache in adolescents using gray matter structural MRI features.

Objective: Headache is among the most frequent symptoms after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), so-called long COVID syndrome. Although distinct brain changes have been reported in patients with long COVID, such reported brain changes have not been used for predictions and interpretations in a multivariate manner. In this study, we applied machine learning to assess whether individual adolescents with long COVID can be accurately distinguished from those with primary headaches. Methods: Twenty-three adolescents with long COVID headaches with the persistence of headache for at least 3 months and 23 age- and sex-matched adolescents with primary headaches (migraine, new daily persistent headache, and tension-type headache) were enrolled. Multivoxel pattern analysis (MVPA) was applied for disorder-specific predictions of headache etiology based on individual brain structural MRI. In addition, connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) was also performed using a structural covariance network. Results: MVPA correctly classified long COVID patients from primary headache patients, with an area under the curve of 0.73 (accuracy = 63.4%; permutation p = 0.001). The discriminating GM patterns exhibited lower classification weights for long COVID in the orbitofrontal and medial temporal lobes. The CPM using the structural covariance network achieved an area under the curve of 0.81 (accuracy = 69.5%; permutation p = 0.005). The edges that classified long COVID patients from primary headache were mainly comprising thalamic connections. Conclusion: The results suggest the potential value of structural MRI-based features for classifying long COVID headaches from primary headaches. The identified features suggest that the distinct gray matter changes in the orbitofrontal and medial temporal lobes occurring after COVID, as well as altered thalamic connectivity, are predictive of headache etiology.

Assessing COVID-19 and Other Pandemics and Epidemics using Computational Modelling and Data Analysis

This book comprehensively covers the topic of COVID-19 and other pandemics and epidemics data analytics using computational modelling. Biomedical and Health Informatics is an emerging field of research at the intersection of information science, computer science, and health care. The new era of pandemics and epidemics bring tremendous opportunities and challenges due to the plentiful and easily available medical data allowing for further analysis. The aim of pandemics and epidemics research is to ensure high-quality, efficient healthcare, better treatment and quality of life by efficiently analyzing the abundant medical, and healthcare data including patient's data, electronic health records (EHRs) and lifestyle. In the past, it was a common requirement to have domain experts for developing models for biomedical or healthcare. However, recent advances in representation learning algorithms allow us to automatically learn the pattern and representation of the given data for the development of such models. Medical Image Mining, a novel research area (due to its large amount of medical images) are increasingly generated and stored digitally. These images are mainly in the form of: computed tomography (CT), X-ray, nuclear medicine imaging (PET, SPECT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ultrasound. Patients' biomedical images can be digitized using data mining techniques and may help in answering several important and critical questions related to health care. Image mining in medicine can help to uncover new relationships between data and reveal new and useful information that can be helpful for scientists and biomedical practitioners. Assessing COVID-19 and Other Pandemics and Epidemics using Computational Modelling and Data Analysis will play a vital role in improving human life in response to pandemics and epidemics. The state-of-the-art approaches for data mining-based medical and health related applications will be of great value to researchers and practitioners working in biomedical, health informatics, and artificial intelligence. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Use of community SARS-CoV2 case counts and instantaneous reproductive number to predict short-term COVID-19 hospital admission volumes.

The SARS-CoV2 pandemic and high hospitalization rates placed a tremendous strain on hospital resources necessitating models to predict hospital volumes and the associated resource requirements. Complex epidemiologic models have been developed and published, but many require continued adjustment of input parameters. We developed a simplified model for short-term bed need predictions that self-adjusts to changing patterns of disease in the community and admission rates. The model utilizes public health data on community new case counts for SARS-CoV2 and projects anticipated hospitalization rates. The model was retrospectively evaluated after the second wave of SARS-CoV2 2 in New York (October 2020-April 2021) for its accuracy in predicting number of COVID-19 admissions at three, five, seven and 10 days into the future comparing predicted admissions with actual admissions for each day at a large integrated healthcare delivery network. Mean absolute percent error of the model was found to be low when evaluated across the entire health system, for a single region of the health system or for a single large hospital (6.1%-7.6% for 3-day predictions, 9.2%-10.4% for five-day predictions, 12.4%-13.2% for seven-day predictions, and 17.1-17.8% for 10-day predictions).

Deciphering the covid-19 epidemic and analysis of its controllability

This chapter discusses lessons from the Covid-19 crisis, based on the history of the disease in France and distribution throughout the world. The Covid-19 crisis raises many questions, in addition to those addressed in the deciphering of the epidemic. In addition to the pre-positioning of the epidemic control system, for which the best organization must be found, the tools for analyzing the emergence that have just been presented can be optimized through predictive modeling, propagation scenarios and the study of the consequences of anti-epidemic measures. While no one appears "especially guilty" of the occurrence of the Covid-19 crisis, it is highly unfortunate that real-time epidemic threat analysis systems, whose annual cost can be estimated at 1/10,000th the cost of the epidemic, were not used to contain severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. © ISTE Ltd 2022.

A business retrieval model using scenario planning and analytics for life during and after the pandemic crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic crisis has fundamentally changed the way we live and work forever. The business sector is forecasting and formulating different scenarios associated with the impact of the pandemic on its employees, customers, and suppliers. Various business retrieval models are under construction to cope with life after the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis. However, the proposed plans and scenarios are static and cannot address the dynamic pandemic changes worldwide. They also have not considered the peripheral in-between scenarios to propel the shifting paradigm of businesses from the existing condition to the new one. Furthermore, the scenario drivers in the current studies are generally centered on the economic aspects of the pandemic with little attention to the social facets. This study aims to fill this gap by proposing scenario planning and analytics to study the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on large-scale information technology-led Companies. The primary and peripheral scenarios are constructed based on a balanced set of business continuity and employee health drivers. Practical action plans are formulated for each scenario to devise plausible responses. Finally, a damage management framework is developed to cope with the mental disorders of the employees amid the disease.Copyright © 2021 The Author(s)

A general modeling framework for quantitative tracking, accurate prediction of ICU, and assessing vaccination for COVID-19 in Chile.

Background: One of the main lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic is that we must prepare to face another pandemic like it. Consequently, this article aims to develop a general framework consisting of epidemiological modeling and a practical identifiability approach to assess combined vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies for the dynamics of any transmissible disease. Materials and methods: Epidemiological modeling of the present work relies on delay differential equations describing time variation and transitions between suitable compartments. The practical identifiability approach relies on parameter optimization, a parametric bootstrap technique, and data processing. We implemented a careful parameter optimization algorithm by searching for suitable initialization according to each processed dataset. In addition, we implemented a parametric bootstrap technique to accurately predict the ICU curve trend in the medium term and assess vaccination. Results: We show the framework's calibration capabilities for several processed COVID-19 datasets of different regions of Chile. We found a unique range of parameters that works well for every dataset and provides overall numerical stability and convergence for parameter optimization. Consequently, the framework produces outstanding results concerning quantitative tracking of COVID-19 dynamics. In addition, it allows us to accurately predict the ICU curve trend in the medium term and assess vaccination. Finally, it is reproducible since we provide open-source codes that consider parameter initialization standardized for every dataset. Conclusion: This work attempts to implement a holistic and general modeling framework for quantitative tracking of the dynamics of any transmissible disease, focusing on accurately predicting the ICU curve trend in the medium term and assessing vaccination. The scientific community could adapt it to evaluate the impact of combined vaccination and NPIs strategies for COVID-19 or any transmissible disease in any country and help visualize the potential effects of implemented plans by policymakers. In future work, we want to improve the computational cost of the parametric bootstrap technique or use another more efficient technique. The aim would be to reconstruct epidemiological curves to predict the combined NPIs and vaccination policies' impact on the ICU curve trend in real-time, providing scientific evidence to help anticipate policymakers' decisions.

A multiscale mechanistic model of human dendritic cells for in-silico investigation of immune responses and novel therapeutics discovery.

Dendritic cells (DCs) are professional antigen-presenting cells (APCs) with the unique ability to mediate inflammatory responses of the immune system. Given the critical role of DCs in shaping immunity, they present an attractive avenue as a therapeutic target to program the immune system and reverse immune disease disorders. To ensure appropriate immune response, DCs utilize intricate and complex molecular and cellular interactions that converge into a seamless phenotype. Computational models open novel frontiers in research by integrating large-scale interaction to interrogate the influence of complex biological behavior across scales. The ability to model large biological networks will likely pave the way to understanding any complex system in more approachable ways. We developed a logical and predictive model of DC function that integrates the heterogeneity of DCs population, APC function, and cell-cell interaction, spanning molecular to population levels. Our logical model consists of 281 components that connect environmental stimuli with various layers of the cell compartments, including the plasma membrane, cytoplasm, and nucleus to represent the dynamic processes within and outside the DC, such as signaling pathways and cell-cell interactions. We also provided three sample use cases to apply the model in the context of studying cell dynamics and disease environments. First, we characterized the DC response to Sars-CoV-2 and influenza co-infection by in-silico experiments and analyzed the activity level of 107 molecules that play a role in this co-infection. The second example presents simulations to predict the crosstalk between DCs and T cells in a cancer microenvironment. Finally, for the third example, we used the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment analysis against the model's components to identify 45 diseases and 24 molecular pathways that the DC model can address. This study presents a resource to decode the complex dynamics underlying DC-derived APC communication and provides a platform for researchers to perform in-silico experiments on human DC for vaccine design, drug discovery, and immunotherapies.

Forecasting domestic waste generation during successive COVID-19 lockdowns by Bidirectional LSTM super learner neural network

Accurate prediction of domestic waste generation is a challenging task for municipalities to implement sustainable waste management strategies. In the present study, domestic waste generation in the Kingdom of Bahrain, representing a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) case study, has been investigated during successive COVID-19 lockdowns due to the pandemic in 2020. Temporal trends of daily domestic waste generation between 2019 and 2020 and their statistical analyses exhibited remarkable variations highlighting the impact of consecutive COVID-19 lockdowns on domestic waste generation. Machine learning has great potential for predicting solid waste generation rates, but only a few studies utilized deep learning approaches. The state-of-the-art Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network model as a deep learning method is applied to forecast daily domestic waste data in 2020. Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA) was hybridized with BiLSTM to generate a super learner approach. The performance of the BOA-BiLSTM super learner model was further compared with the statistical ARIMA model. Performance indicators of the developed models using ARIMA and BiLSTM showed that the latter yielded superior performance for short-term forecasts of domestic waste generation. The MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R2 were 47.38, 60.73, 256.43, and 0.46, respectively, for the ARIMA model, compared to 3.67, 12.57, 0.24, and 0.96, respectively, for the BiLSTM model. Additionally, the relative errors for the BiLSTM model were lower than those of the ARIMA model. This study highlights that the BiLSTM can be a reliable forecasting tool for solid waste management policymakers during public health emergencies. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Long-term outcomes of COVID-19 survivors with hospital AKI: association with time to recovery from AKI.

BACKGROUND: Although COVID-19 patients who developed in-hospital AKI have worse short-term outcomes, their long-term outcomes have not been fully characterized. We investigated 90-day and one-year outcomes after hospital AKI grouped by time to recovery from AKI. METHODS: This study consisted of 3,296 COVID-19 patients with hospital AKI stratified by early recovery (<48 hours), delayed recovery (2-7 days), and prolonged recovery (>7-90 days). Demographics, comorbidities, laboratory values were obtained at admission and up to one-year follow-up. Incidence of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and major adverse kidney event (MAKE), rehospitalization, recurrent AKI, and new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) were obtained 90-days post COVID-19 discharge. RESULTS: The incidence of hospital AKI was 28.6%. Of COVID-19 patients with AKI, 58.0% experienced early recovery, 14.8% delayed recovery and 27.1% prolonged recovery. Patients with longer AKI recovery time had higher prevalence of CKD (p<0.05) and were more likely to need invasive mechanical ventilation (p<0.001) and to die (p<0.001). Many COVID-19 patients developed MAKE, recurrent AKI, and new-onset CKD within 90 days, and these incidences were higher in the prolonged recovery group (p<0.05). Incidence of MACE peaked 20-40 days post-discharge, whereas MAKE peaked 80-90 days post-discharge. Logistic regression models predicted 90-day MACE and MAKE with 82.4±1.6% and 79.6.9±2.3% accuracy, respectively. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 survivors who developed hospital AKI are at high risk for adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes, especially those with longer AKI recovery time and those with history of CKD. These patients may require long-term follow-up for cardiac and kidney complications.

Data-driven analysis and predictive modeling on COVID-19.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) started in China in 2019, has spread rapidly in every single country and has spread in millions of cases worldwide. This paper presents a proposed approach that involves identifying the relative impact of COVID-19 on a specific gender, the mortality rate in specific age, investigating different safety measures adopted by each country and their impact on the virus growth rate. Our study proposes data-driven analysis and prediction modeling by investigating three aspects of the pandemic (gender of patients, global growth rate, and social distancing). Several machine learning and ensemble models have been used and compared to obtain the best accuracy. Experiments have been demonstrated on three large public datasets. The motivation of this study is to propose an analytical machine learning based model to explore three significant aspects of COVID-19 pandemic as gender, global growth rate, and social distancing. The proposed analytical model includes classic classifiers, distinctive ensemble methods such as bagging, feature based ensemble, voting and stacking. The results show a superior prediction performance comparing with the related approaches.

A Machine Learning Approach to Identify Predictors of Severe COVID-19 Outcome in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have a lowered immune response to infection, potentially due to the use of corticosteroids and immunosuppressive drugs. Predictors of severe COVID-19 outcomes within the RA population have not yet been explored in a real-world setting. OBJECTIVES: To identify the most influential predictors of severe COVID-19 within the RA population. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Research was conducted using Optum’s de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (2000-2021Q1), a US commercial claims database. METHODS: We identified adult patients with index COVID-19 (ICD-10-CM diagnosis code U07.1) between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. Patients were required to have continuous enrollment and have evidence of one inpatient or 2 outpatient diagnoses of RA in the 365 days prior to index. RA patients with COVID-19 were stratified by outcome (mild vs severe), with severe cases defined as having one of the following within 60 days of COVID-19 diagnosis: death, treatment in the intensive care unit (ICU), or mechanical ventilation. Baseline demographics and clinical characteristics were extracted during the 365 days prior to index COVID-19 diagnosis. To control for improving treatment options, the month of index date was included as a potential independent variable in all models. Data were partitioned (80% train and 20% test), and a variety of machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine [SVM], and XGBoost) were constructed to predict severe COVID-19, with model covariates ranked according to importance. RESULTS: Of 4,295 RA patients with COVID-19 included in the study, 990 (23.1%) were classified as severe. RA patients with severe COVID-19 had a higher mean age (mean [SD] = 71.6 [10.3] vs 63.4 [13.7] years, P < 0.001) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (3.8 [2.4] vs 2.4 [1.8], P < 0.001) than those with mild cases. Males were more likely to be a severe case than mild (29.1% vs 18.5%, P < 0.001). The top 15 predictors from the best performing model (XGBoost, AUC = 75.64) were identified. While female gender, commercial insurance, and physical therapy were inversely associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, top predictors included a March index date, older age, more inpatient visits at baseline, corticosteroid or gamma-aminobutyric acid analog (GABA) use at baseline or the need for durable medical equipment (i.e., wheelchairs), as well as comorbidities such as congestive heart failure, hypertension, fluid and electrolyte disorders, lower respiratory disease, chronic pulmonary disease, and diabetes with complication. LIMITATIONS: The cohort meeting our eligibility criteria is a relatively small sample in the context of machine learning. Additionally, diagnoses definitions rely solely on ICD-10-CM codes, and there may be unmeasured variables (such as labs and vitals) due to the nature of the data. These limitations were carefully considered when interpreting the results. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive baseline comorbidities and risk factors can be leveraged for early detection of RA patients at risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Further research should be conducted on modifiable factors in the RA population, such as physical therapy.

Early immune markers of clinical, virological, and immunological outcomes in patients with COVID-19: a multi-omics study.

Background: The great majority of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections are mild and uncomplicated, but some individuals with initially mild COVID-19 progressively develop more severe symptoms. Furthermore, there is substantial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2-specific memory immune responses following infection. There remains a critical need to identify host immune biomarkers predictive of clinical and immunological outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Methods: Leveraging longitudinal samples and data from a clinical trial (N=108) in SARS-CoV-2-infected outpatients, we used host proteomics and transcriptomics to characterize the trajectory of the immune response in COVID-19 patients. We characterized the association between early immune markers and subsequent disease progression, control of viral shedding, and SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell and antibody responses measured up to 7 months after enrollment. We further compared associations between early immune markers and subsequent T cell and antibody responses following natural infection with those following mRNA vaccination. We developed machine-learning models to predict patient outcomes and validated the predictive model using data from 54 individuals enrolled in an independent clinical trial. Results: We identify early immune signatures, including plasma RIG-I levels, early IFN signaling, and related cytokines (CXCL10, MCP1, MCP-2, and MCP-3) associated with subsequent disease progression, control of viral shedding, and the SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell and antibody response measured up to 7 months after enrollment. We found that several biomarkers for immunological outcomes are shared between individuals receiving BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine and COVID-19 patients. Finally, we demonstrate that machine-learning models using 2-7 plasma protein markers measured early within the course of infection are able to accurately predict disease progression, T cell memory, and the antibody response post-infection in a second, independent dataset. Conclusions: Early immune signatures following infection can accurately predict clinical and immunological outcomes in outpatients with COVID-19 using validated machine-learning models. Funding: Support for the study was provided from National Institute of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH/NIAID) (U01 AI150741-01S1 and T32-AI052073), the Stanford's Innovative Medicines Accelerator, National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIH/NIDA) DP1DA046089, and anonymous donors to Stanford University. Peginterferon lambda provided by Eiger BioPharmaceuticals.

Exploring Anxiety of Québec University Community during COVID-19 Pandemic via Machine Learning

Many studies showed that COVID-19 global pandemic had a negative impact on the mental health of post-secondary students over the world. To date, very few studies have been conducted in a university setting, not only with students but also with employees. Moreover, almost all studies were based on classical statistical analysis. In this study, we investigated the level of anxiety felt by the Quebec university community (students and employees) during COVID-19 pandemic. Especially, we focused on the generalized anxiety disorder (GAD-7) score with the help of classical data exploration and predictive machine learning techniques. We observed that the best predictive model of the GAD-7 score was provided by the CatBoost algorithm) reaching a squared Pearson correlation coefficient of r2 = 0.5656. Moreover, we also explored variable importance and interaction effects between variables involved in the predictive model obtained using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). © 2022 ACM.

Indoor air pollution, occupant health, and building system controls—a COVID-19 perspective

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has taken a serious toll on humanity and mankind, affecting every section of society. Scientists are still trying to find out the possible transmission routes of this deadly virus, with airborne routes cited by many as a possible route of infection spread. Because airborne aerosols, dust particles, and other indoor pollutants aid in virus transmission, it becomes important to assess their roles in affecting human health. The study therefore tries to review indoor air pollution and its sources, how it impacts human health, and the role of built components and technological systems in combating indoor air pollution and in the process control infection spread also. Most of the studies have found out that there exists a need to accurately determine the airflow distribution pattern rather than relying on generic ventilation standards like ventilation rates, air change rates, and CO2 levels. Although increasing outdoor airflow rates and avoiding air recirculation are some of the suggestions given to control indoor pollution levels and infection spread, it can become challenging in areas with high ambient pollution levels. This signifies the need to incorporate additional engineering controls, sensing technologies, artificial intelligence tools, and predictive modeling methods to combat the health hazards of indoor air pollution and potential novel viruses that can emerge in the future. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Model for the Risk of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Using Fuzzy Logic Modeling

This study formulated a model for assessing the risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on variables associated with the spread of COVID-19 infections. The study used the Mamdani fuzzy logic model based on a multiple input and single output (MISO) scheme which required 12 inputs and one output variable. Each of the input variables was identified using binary values, namely No and Yes, while the spread of COVID-19 was assessed using four nominal linguistic values. Two triangular membership functions were used to formulate each associated variable and four triangular membership functions to formulate the spread of COVID-19 using specific crisp intervals. The results of the study showed that 4096 rules were inferred from the possible combination of the binary linguistic values of the associated variables for the assessment of the spread of COVID-19. The study concluded that knowledge about variables associated with the spread of COVID-19 infection can be adopted for supporting decision-making which affects the assessment of the spread of COVID-19 by stakeholders.

Proteomic analysis of cardiometabolic biomarkers and predictive modeling of severe outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The high heterogeneity in the symptoms and severity of COVID-19 makes it challenging to identify high-risk patients early in the disease. Cardiometabolic comorbidities have shown strong associations with COVID-19 severity in epidemiologic studies. Cardiometabolic protein biomarkers, therefore, may provide predictive insight regarding which patients are most susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19. METHODS: In plasma samples collected from 343 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic, we measured 92 circulating protein biomarkers previously implicated in cardiometabolic disease. We performed proteomic analysis and developed predictive models for severe outcomes. We then used these models to predict the outcomes of out-of-sample patients hospitalized with COVID-19 later in the surge (N = 194). RESULTS: We identified a set of seven protein biomarkers predictive of admission to the intensive care unit and/or death (ICU/death) within 28 days of presentation to care. Two of the biomarkers, ADAMTS13 and VEGFD, were associated with a lower risk of ICU/death. The remaining biomarkers, ACE2, IL-1RA, IL6, KIM1, and CTSL1, were associated with higher risk. When used to predict the outcomes of the future, out-of-sample patients, the predictive models built with these protein biomarkers outperformed all models built from standard clinical data, including known COVID-19 risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that proteomic profiling can inform the early clinical impression of a patient's likelihood of developing severe COVID-19 outcomes and, ultimately, accelerate the recognition and treatment of high-risk patients.

Generalizable prediction of COVID-19 mortality on worldwide patient data.

Objective: Predicting Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality for patients is critical for early-stage care and intervention. Existing studies mainly built models on datasets with limited geographical range or size. In this study, we developed COVID-19 mortality prediction models on worldwide, large-scale "sparse" data and on a "dense" subset of the data. Materials and Methods: We evaluated 6 classifiers, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), AdaBoost (AB), and Naive Bayes (NB). We also conducted temporal analysis and calibrated our models using Isotonic Regression. Results: The results showed that AB outperformed the other classifiers for the sparse dataset, while LR provided the highest-performing results for the dense dataset (with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, or AUC ≈ 0.7 for the sparse dataset and AUC = 0.963 for the dense one). We also identified impactful features such as symptoms, countries, age, and the date of death/discharge. All our models are well-calibrated (P > .1). Discussion: Our results highlight the tradeoff of using sparse training data to increase generalizability versus training on denser data, which produces higher discrimination results. We found that covariates such as patient information on symptoms, countries (where the case was reported), age, and the date of discharge from the hospital or death were the most important for mortality prediction. Conclusion: This study is a stepping-stone towards improving healthcare quality during the COVID-19 era and potentially other pandemics. Our code is publicly available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6336231.

An exploration of the antecedent to increase society’s use of predictive models: Trust in science or predictive models

Research has resulted in profound societal changes, impacting lives and health worldwide. As a result, the public esteems researchers and funds further research. This critical societal process is obstructed if society chooses not to implement research results. Much of this research is the result of predictive models. This study will characterize the antecedents and impact of framing on trust in predictive modeling. Prior research focused on trust in science. There is evidence that there is no commonly understood definition of science. Trust in predictive modeling is a more appropriate area of study. This study contextualized the antecedents from trust in science research to trust in predictive modeling. A new construct was developed, and three trust-in-science constructs contextualized to fit the trust in predictive models were useful. This research surveyed 207 students. The framing questions used were divided into two categories, one that many people are familiar with (GPS automobile routing) and one that they were less familiar with (COVID-19 infection prediction models), where COVID modeling is embroiled in controversy. The political influence construct did not impact questions framed by a familiar noncontroversial example, but the COVID-framed questions were impacted. Through the use of predictive models, this research provides a novel approach to the field of study. It discovers four antecedents to trust in predictive models (conspiracy ideation, intellectual curiosity, self-efficacy, and political influence) and provides a new construct for framing questions (political influence).

SARIMA Model Forecasting Performance of the COVID-19 Daily Statistics in Thailand during the Omicron Variant Epidemic.

This study aims to identify and evaluate a robust and replicable public health predictive model that can be applied to the COVID-19 time-series dataset, and to compare the model performance after performing the 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day forecast interval. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated using a Thailand COVID-19 open dataset from 1 December 2021 to 30 April 2022, during the Omicron variant outbreak. The SARIMA model with a non-statistically significant p-value of the Ljung-Box test, the lowest AIC, and the lowest RMSE was selected from the top five candidates for model validation. The selected models were validated using the 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day forward-chaining cross validation method. The model performance matrix for each forecast interval was evaluated and compared. The case fatality rate and mortality rate of the COVID-19 Omicron variant were estimated from the best performance model. The study points out the importance of different time interval forecasting that affects the model performance.

An Integrated Care Platform System (C3-Cloud) for Care Planning, Decision Support, and Empowerment of Patients With Multimorbidity: Protocol for a Technology Trial.

BACKGROUND: There is an increasing need to organize the care around the patient and not the disease, while considering the complex realities of multiple physical and psychosocial conditions, and polypharmacy. Integrated patient-centered care delivery platforms have been developed for both patients and clinicians. These platforms could provide a promising way to achieve a collaborative environment that improves the provision of integrated care for patients via enhanced information and communication technology solutions for semiautomated clinical decision support. OBJECTIVE: The Collaborative Care and Cure Cloud project (C3-Cloud) has developed 2 collaborative computer platforms for patients and members of the multidisciplinary team (MDT) and deployed these in 3 different European settings. The objective of this study is to pilot test the platforms and evaluate their impact on patients with 2 or more chronic conditions (diabetes mellitus type 2, heart failure, kidney failure, depression), their informal caregivers, health care professionals, and, to some extent, health care systems. METHODS: This paper describes the protocol for conducting an evaluation of user experience, acceptability, and usefulness of the platforms. For this, 2 "testing and evaluation" phases have been defined, involving multiple qualitative methods (focus groups and surveys) and advanced impact modeling (predictive modeling and cost-benefit analysis). Patients and health care professionals were identified and recruited from 3 partnering regions in Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom via electronic health record screening. RESULTS: The technology trial in this 4-year funded project (2016-2020) concluded in April 2020. The pilot technology trial for evaluation phases 3 and 4 was launched in November 2019 and carried out until April 2020. Data collection for these phases is completed with promising results on platform acceptance and socioeconomic impact. We believe that the phased, iterative approach taken is useful as it involves relevant stakeholders at crucial stages in the platform development and allows for a sound user acceptance assessment of the final product. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with multiple chronic conditions often experience shortcomings in the care they receive. It is hoped that personalized care plan platforms for patients and collaboration platforms for members of MDTs can help tackle the specific challenges of clinical guideline reconciliation for patients with multimorbidity and improve the management of polypharmacy. The initial evaluative phases have indicated promising results of platform usability. Results of phases 3 and 4 were methodologically useful, yet limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03834207; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03834207. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/21994.